A recent poll from the University of California, Irvine School of Social Ecology reveals former Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a significant but not overwhelming lead in the early stages of the 2026 California gubernatorial race. She garners 24% of total support, but the poll indicates 40% of respondents are undecided, highlighting a considerable degree of uncertainty among voters.
In a direct matchup against a generic Republican candidate, Harris commands a lead of 41% to 29%, leaving 30% of voters undecided or unlikely to vote. However, the poll’s credibility is challenged by the omission of several significant candidates while including others who have yet to declare. Among those listed, developer Rick Caruso comes in a surprising second at 9%, while other Democrats, such as Katie Porter and Antonio Villaraigosa, trail with 6% and 4%, respectively.
The poll illustrates various dynamics within the Democratic base, where Harris enjoys 49% support, but also indicates that 25% of Democrats remain undecided. Caruso’s unexpectedly strong showing among Republicans, at 28%, complicates the GOP landscape, as many voters in this category are also uncertain about their choices. Notably, the poll indicates disparities in name recognition, with Harris being known to 95% of voters while many others lag significantly behind.
Analyzing the implications for California’s political landscape, Harris’s lead points to her established national profile, yet emphasizes her need to convert undecided voters as primaries approach. Caruso’s emergence as a contender suggests that dynamic fundraising and messaging strategies could complicate Harris’s path, particularly if both declare their candidacies.
The undecided voter pool remains significant across demographic and geographic lines, reflecting a potential volatility. Harris’s capability to consolidate support is paramount as other established figures increasingly draw interest. As the race solidifies leading into primary day, likely within the next year, candidates will need to leverage their respective strengths to navigate this uncertain electoral landscape in California.